(CNN)There were scarcely any hints of the tumultuous years that would follow the swearing-in of Dr. John Pombe Magufuli on 5th November 2015 as Tanzania’s fifth president. After all, his Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party had been in power for decades, and his victory seemed to herald continuity with the past.

In fact, Magufuli’s opponent attracted more attention during the campaign than Magufuli himself. When Edward Lowassa defected from CCM to the opposition and ran for president against his old party, it looked fleetingly as though this elite split might spell the end of CCM’s dominance.
But Magufuli has not brought continuity, but dramatic change. He began to impress just days after his inauguration. He made a snap unannounced visit to the Ministry of Finance on his first day as president. Then he pulled funds intended for Independence Day celebrations and redirected them to anti-cholera operations. He began a shake-up of the Tanzania Port Authority, and extended it to the Tanzania Revenue Authority as he launched a tax collection drive. An audit of the public payroll led to a purge of “ghost workers”. Quickly, it became apparent that he was genuinely waging war on corruption in the Tanzanian state.
The primary victims of these anti-corruption operations have been mid- and low-ranking civil servants. However, Magufuli has taken on high elites in CCM selectively too. In May, he fired Minister of Energy and Minerals Sospeter Muhongo. This June, businessman James Rugemalira and Harbinder Singh Sethi found themselves in court, facing government prosecutors in court. Both were linked to a major corruption case, the Escrow Scandal in 2014.
This thrift and intolerance for corruption won Magufuli attention and admiration worldwide. In the social media sphere, commentators celebrated his zeal playfully with the hashtag, “#WhatWouldMagufuliDo”.
But since early 2016, it has become apparent that Magufuli is not just waging war on corruption — he is also declaring war on democracy.

War on democracy
Magufuli has overseen numerous closures and suspensions of media outlets. His officials have encouraged and tried to exacerbate a split in the Civic United Front, by backing one side. His government has undermined judicial and parliamentary independence, implemented a partial ban on public rallies, harassed MPs, closure of online political space, and prosecuted critics under new defamation and sedition laws.
Together, these constitute major infringements on the freedom of expression and the opposition’s ability to communicate with voters.
In March this year he announced at a press conference that:
“Media owners, let me tell you: ‘Be careful. Watch it. If you think you have that kind of freedom — not to that extent’.”
In part, this repressive streak is a return to form. CCM has a long history of authoritarianism. It has ruled Tanzanian uninterrupted since 1977, and its predecessor parties ruled Tanganyika since 1961.
But there is a more immediate reason that Magufuli is tightening the noose on the opposition. The opposition has never been so strong. In 2005, CCM’s Jakaya Kikwete won the presidential election with an unassailable lead of 68% over the runner-up. By 2015, CCM’s margin of victory had been shortened to 18%. For the first time in Tanzania’s history, the opposition is a force to be reckoned with.
The most plausible explanation for Magufuli’s authoritarian turn is that he is trying to minimize the possibility of an opposition victory in the future. Equally, every time he advances the anti-corruption agenda, he makes more enemies who might defect to the opposition. By narrowing space for opposition, he reduces the risk of them doing so.
But Magufuli is not only relying on repressive means to stay in power. He is also pursuing a program that revives his popularity.

The Magufuli way
The third and most recent theme in Magufuli’s presidency has been a confrontation with multinational mining companies.
The controversy was kick-started this is the alleged discovery that Acacia Mining has been under-reporting of mineral exports earlier this year. Magufuli has argued that multinational mining companies have been stealing Tanzania’s resources for years.
Based on these claims, the government charged Acacia Mining with fines and back-dated taxes amounting to $190 billion. Magufuli even threatened to nationalize the mines. His strategy of brinkmanship worked. On October 19th, Acacia’s parent company Barrick Gold announced that it had reached an agreement with the Tanzanian government. It promised to find ways to further process copper-gold ores in Tanzania, instead of exporting them for smelting, and it made a number of pecuniary concessions.
There is a strategic thread that ties together Magufuli’s actions.
Tanzania’s fifth Five Year Plan restores industrialization to the heart of government policy in a way unseen since the 1970s. Domestic processing and tax revenue is central to that plan. So is government discipline, thrift and tax collection. The closure of political space keeps CCM in power to implement it, and suffocates internal opposition to his reforms.

President Magufuli has threatened to nationalize Tanzanian mines.
But the definitive feature of Magufuli’s first two years has been a talent for pursuing his programme of reform while pursuing domestic popularity at the same time. His taste for the dramatic has caught public attention and his willingness to disturb the status quo has convinced many that his intentions are more sincere than those of his predecessors. Perhaps more than any other president since Tanzania’s founding father, Julius Nyerere, Magufuli is seen as a man of integrity.
While Magufuli has skilfully coupled popular politics with fundamental reform, he has also precipitated a series of unintended changes which may be slipping beyond his control.
His demands from companies have unquestionable merit, but they are also making businesses think twice about operating in Tanzania. For example, a number of oil companies are due to begin negotiations about developing off-shore gas fields. After the debacle with mining companies they know that they will not get an easy deal, but they may also doubt the word of a government that has in effect torn up contracts, and repeatedly placed the president at the center of contract negotiation.
Equally, by putting such pressure on the opposition, Magufuli may make it stronger. Attempts to divide the second opposition party, the Civic United Front, may drive them closer to Chadema. They may also unintentionally make martyrs of the opposition. An attempted assassination attempt transformed opposition politician Tundu Lissu into a national hero.
It is not known who is behind the drive-by shooting that hospitalised Lissu, in which at least 28 shots were fired, but Lissu was among the most vocal opponents of the government. He was being tried in court for sedition just days before he was shot. No matter who was behind the attack, it is fast becoming the public image for the extremes of political change in Tanzania under Magufuli.
Many underestimated Magufuli at his inauguration two years ago, but few do now. While Magufuli’s election represents the continuation of CCM rule, he has brought about profound change. Only time will tell whether the intended or the unintended consequences of his actions will be those that define his legacy.

At least 15 people have been killed and several others wounded in a stampede in Morocco while food aid was distributed.
The incident occurred in the town of Sidi Boulaalam in Essaouira province. The aid was being handed out by a private local charity.
Some reports indicate that up to 40 people were injured in the crush. Local media reported that most of the victims were women and elderly people.
Pictures on social media showed bodies of women laid out on the ground.
Witnesses told local media that this year’s annual food aid distribution at a local market in Sidi Boulaalam, an impoverished town with just over 8,000 inhabitants, attracted a larger crowd than usual.

“This year there were lots of people, several hundred people,” a witness who asked to remain anonymous told AFP news agency.
“People shoved, they broke down the barriers,” he said, adding that the injured had been evacuated to a hospital in Marrakesh.
Morocco’s interior ministry said that King Muhammed VI had instructed the local authorities to help those affected, adding that he would personally cover all medical and funeral costs.
An unverified video shot by a bystander before the incident showed a large crowd gathered at the open-air market, waiting for the food distribution.
It is not clear what triggered the stampede.

THE ICT sphere has undergone distinct stages of evolution and has lately been focussing on going digital, which means shifting the paradigm from traditional business to an intelligent society.

Huawei President, Southern Africa Region, Mr Li Pengon has based on recent studies, seven out of 10 of the world’s fastest growing companies are in Africa, the beginning of a trend that will give rise to new digital economies.

“Digital strategy is generally best seen as a tripartite engagement between the government as enabler, carriers as promoters and technology partners as solution providers in a win-win context.

However, based on statistics from Hoot-suite, Africa is a relatively distinctive continent with only 29 percent of internet penetration and 14 percent active on social media.

Nonetheless, Africa is known to be the technological renaissance. He said that in 2016, GSMA has shown that 300+ hubs have emerged in the African Tech Startup ecosystem. Investors are recognising the potential as well, and so, going digital is a strategic decision for any African enterprise.

It does not only boost macro-economic growth but also solve legacy enterprise or carrier issues in terms of time to market, shrinking traditional revenue streams, controlling costs, driving new revenues, monetising investments, and achieving convergence,” he said.

He added that there are substantial benefits of digital versus the traditional way of conducting business, in the likes of improved efficiency, slimmer cost structure, faster time to market with focus on the customer, new services and openness.

Hence, he said cloud can be depicted as the stairway of digital strategy. The most optimal way to go about this change from legacy IT mode of operations to the digital world is by adopting modular and converged cloud architecture.

Mr Peng said choice of infrastructure is paramount to allow for future flexibility, scalability and evolution supporting all flavours of cloud, whether public, private, or hybrid. He said that many enterprises including banks have adopted cloud by initially moving internal and non-business critical applications before shifting the critical applications.

By Obinna Chima
The World Bank has predicted that oil prices would rise to $56 a barrel in 2018 from $53 this year, as a result of steadily growing demand, agreed production cuts among oil exporters and stabilising United States shale oil production.

In addition, the Bank predicted that the surge in metals prices was expected to level off next year.

Oil prices rallied on Friday, sending the global crude benchmark above $60 a barrel for the first time in more than two years and lifting the U.S. benchmark for the commodity to its highest finish in nearly eight months.

Prices found support on speculation that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major producers would agree to extend their production-cut deal through the end of the next year. To this end, Brent, the global benchmark rose 1.9 per cent to close at $60.44 a barrel. That was the highest settlement for a front-month contract since July 2015. The contract rose about 4.7% for the week.

But the World Bank in its October Commodity Markets Outlook, pointed out that prices for energy commodities – which include oil, natural gas, and coal — were forecast to climb four percent in 2018 after a 28 percent leap this year.

The metals index was expected to stabilise in the coming year, after a 22 percent jump this year as a correction in iron ore prices is offset by increased prices in other base metals.

Also, prices for agricultural commodities, including food commodities and raw materials, were anticipated to recede modestly in 2017 and edge up next year.

“Energy prices are recovering in response to steady demand and falling stocks, but much depends on whether oil producers seek to extend production cuts,” the Senior Economist and lead author of the Commodity Markets Outlook, John Baffes said.

“Developments in China will play an important role in the price trajectory for metals.”

The oil price forecast saw a small downward revision from the April outlook and is subject to risks.

Supplies from producers such as Libya, Nigeria, and Venezuela could be volatile.

“Members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers could agree to cut production further, maintaining upward pressure on prices.

“However, failure to renew the agreement could drive prices down, and could increase production from the U.S. shale oil industry. Natural gas prices are expected to rise 3 percent in 2018, while coal prices are seen retreating following a climb of nearly 30 percent in 2017.

“China’s environmental policies are anticipated to be a key factor determining future trends in coal markets.

Iron ore prices are forecast to tumble 10 percent in the coming year but tight supply should push up prices for base metals including lead, nickel and zinc,” it added.

According to the report, downside risks to the forecast include slower-than-anticipated demand from China, or an easing of production restrictions on China’s heavy industries. Gold prices were anticipated to ease next year on expectations of higher U.S. interest rates.

Agriculture prices were however expected to edge up in 2018 due to reduced supplies, with grain and oils and meals prices rising marginally. “Agricultural commodities markets are well-supplied and the stocks-to-use ratios (a measure of how well supplied markets are) of some grains are forecast to be at multi-year highs.

“However, favorable weather patterns, well-supplied global food markets, and relatively low world prices do not necessarily imply ample food availability everywhere.

“Drought conditions that are by some accounts the worst in 60 years, have caused crops failures in parts of Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya and led to severe food shortages. Conflicts in South Sudan, Yemen and Nigeria have driven millions of people from their homes and left millions more in need of emergency food,” it added.

The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook provides detailed market analysis for major commodity groups, including energy, metals, agriculture, precious metals, and fertilizers.

The report includes price forecasts to 2030 for more than 45 commodities. It also provides historical price data and supply, demand, and trade balances for most commodities.

Interbank Market

After rising to as high as 148 per cent last Monday, the overnight tenor of the Nigerian Interbank Offered Rate (NIBOR) reduced significantly to 18..75 per cent on Friday, reflecting the improved liquidity position in the interbank naira market.

The overnight tenor had risen to as high as 148 per cent last Monday, before dropping to 120 per cent on Tuesday as news of a Federal High Court ex parte order instructing all Nigerian banks to forfeit all monies held in accounts without bank verification numbers (BVNs) to the federal government in 14 days from the date the order was given, filtered into the market.

But the inflow from Federal Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) helped to ease the tight naira liquidity of the market. Traditionally, FAAC allocation passes through the banking system.

The Accountant-General of the Federation, Mr. Ahmed Idris, disclosed that the federal government, states and local governments shared N558.082billion in October compared to N637.704 shared in the previous month. Idris made this known at the end of the monthly FAAC meeting in Abuja. According to him, the sum was inclusive of Value Added Tax (VAT).

CBN Injects $481m in One Week

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) last week injected a total of $481 million into the interbank foreign exchange market.

A breakdown of this showed that while $195 million was pumped in at the beginning of the week, the banking sector regulator injected an additional $285,759,449, to meet requests in four sectors of the economy.

Details obtained from the CBN indicated that the agricultural, airlines, petroleum and raw materials were the four sectors that received various sums of allocation forex allocation from the CBN based on requests put forward by their respective banks.

Confirming the figures, the acting Director, Corporate Communications Department, CBN, Isaac Okorafor, said the intervention underlined the high levels of transparency of the Bank in foreign exchange management.

According to him, the CBN would continue to play its role in easing the foreign exchange pressure on manufacturing and agricultural sectors through sales under the new flexible Foreign Exchange regime.

The CBN has consistently injected funds into in the interbank foreign exchange market to ensure liquidity, thereby easing pressure on the local tender currency.

Meanwhile, the naira closed at N360 to the dollar on the Bureau De Change segment yesterday.

Adeosun Clarifies Borrowing

The Minister of Finance, Mrs. Kemi Adeosun, last week explained that the federal government was not desirous of borrowing fresh loans, but seeking to refinance what is known as legacy or inherited debts.

Her explanation was sequel to reactions trailing the request by the executive arm of government to the National Assembly seeking approval of the sum of $5.5 billion to help finance the 2017 Budget.

The minister, who featured on an Arise TV programme, the broadcast arm of THISDAY Newspapers, said the APC-led government would channel $3billion of the $5.5 billion into refinancing inherited debts from the previous administration.

She stated: “Let me explain the $5.5 billion borrowing because there have been some misrepresentations in the media in the last few weeks. The first component of $2.5 billion represents new external borrowing provided for in the 2017 Appropriation Act to part finance the deficit in that budget.

“The borrowing will enable the country to bridge the gap in the 2017 Budget currently facing liquidity problem to finance some capital projects.”

She added: “For the second component, we are refinancing existing domestic debt with the $3 billion external borrowing. This is purely a portfolio restructuring activity that will not result in an increase in the public debt.

“What we are simply doing is moving that debt from owing naira to owing dollars, but because it’s an external borrowing, we have to go back to the National Assembly for approval.

Code of Corporate Governance

The Financial Reporting Council of Nigeria (FRC) last week opened up on plans to reintroduce its proposed harmonised National Code of Corporate Governance (NCCG) that was suspended by the federal government early this year due to controversies surrounding the policy.

The NCCG was suspended following concerns raised by private sector operators with certain aspects of the code and the announcement by the General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG), Mr. Enoch Adeboye that he was stepping down as head of the church in compliance with the tenure limit stipulated by the code of conduct not-for-profit bodies.

Adeboye’s decision to step down as head of the church also prompted President Muhammadu Buhari to sack the former executive secretary of FRC, Mr. Jim Obaze.

However, the incumbent executive secretary and chief executive of the FRC, Mr. Daniel Asapokhai, revealed the decision to revisit the corporate governance code during an interview. According to him, a draft document would be presented to members of the public in the next six months for input and suggestions by stakeholders.

The new FRC boss, in his response to a question from THISDAY, said a board committee to supervise the planned reintroduction of the code has been constituted.

He, however, did not disclose details of the framework of the NCCG that his organisation intends to bring back to existence.

Asapokhai explained: “On revisiting the code, the work has started. The board committee to supervise that work has been constituted. They have had their first meeting and they understand the scope of work that needs to be done.