Author: sophia

Guinea Bissau: Chinese Vessel to Supply Fish to Guinea Bissau Market

Bissau — A Chinese fishing vessel, Hai Feng, will be used to supply fish to Guinea Bissau’s internal market as from Friday, Guinea Bissau’s Fisheries Minister Fernando Correia Landim said Thursday.

“The Chinese vessel will henceforth supply fish to the internal market so that every citizen can access fish products at an affordable price,” Landim said after taking part in operations to offload fish from the Chinese vessel at the Bissau port.

He said the government will avail over 200 tons of fish on the domestic market under an agreement signed with China.

A kilogram of fish that currently costs 650 CFA Francs (1.1 U.S. dollar) on the internal market will henceforth be sold at 500 CFA Francs.

The minister said this partnership with China will enable the Guinea Bissau government to create ideal conditions for supply of fish to the internal market.

On Thursday, Hai Feng vessel offloaded 142 tons of fish, but Guinea Bissau fishmongers urged the government to redouble efforts to supply more fish on the internal market.

Guinea Bissau has in the past experienced a shortage of fish due to lack of fishing vessels in the country.

China and the European Union are the country’s principle partners in the fishing sector.

Guinea: Why Reconciliation Is Crucial

On June 29, 2016, the Provisional National Commission on Reconciliation (CPRN) co-chaired by Guinea’s highest religious figures submitted its long awaited final report to President Alpha Condé. The report was the conclusion of a process that started on August 2011, when the president mandated the commission to listen to as many ordinary citizens and opinion leaders alike on how best to reconcile Guineans.

The country has had a tumultuous history since it gained independence in 1958 and political instability and violence during the 2010 presidential election further weakened national unity and deepened ethnic mistrust.

CPRN hired an international independent cabinet to conduct a thorough study on the kind of transitional justice mechanisms to set up for a successful national reconciliation procedure. The 300 page long report covers crimes and human rights violations committed from independence to 2015 of which the notorious are the gulag of Camp Boiro, the July 1985 events known as “Coup Diarra Traoré”, and the event of September 28, 2009 which has drawn attention from the International Criminal Court.

The report also focused the discussions on the search for truth, justice, reparation and rehabilitation, institutional reforms, and the future of Guinea and it made dozens of recommendations on how best to reconcile Guineans including the creation of a Truth, Justice, and Reconciliation Commission.

The Findings

The results of the study are interesting in many ways but not really surprising for who knows the traditional, cultural, and sociological landscape of the country. The report found that Guineans are overwhelmingly for reconciliation. Not only they are for it, they are also willing to forgive and look forward to a future living together in peace and harmony whereas seeing their differences as an asset rather than a source of division and/or tension.

However, the study shows that 75 percent of the respondents think that suspected perpetrators must be brought to justice.The majority of the respondents demand the right to justice and for the prosecution of suspected perpetrators of atrocities. As regards reparations, 62 percent demand compensation, 54 percent the return of property confiscated, 47 percent demand a public apology, 58 percent request perpetrators to ask for forgiveness, and another 51 percent want an apology from the State.

Looking forward, the majority of Guineans are confident about the country’s future, however, they think reforms at institutional levels must be taken to combat “ethnocentrism and reconcile all ethnic groups”. On the role of ethnicity in politics, almost 89 percent think politicians are using their ethnic groups for political purposes, thus it is not surprising that 68 percent of Guineans indicate that ethnicity has become a divisive factor. Notwithstanding these numbers, a thin majority (51 percent) of those consulted say that different ethnic groups live together peacefully.

The Recommendations

The Commission made 22 recommendations one of which being to institute through legislation a Truth, Justice, and Reconciliation Commission which will continue the work started by CPRN namely implementing its recommendations.

On the need to render justice, the Commission recommends that exemplary sanctions be taken against judicial actors who violate the laws and that the criminal justice system be strengthened to restore confidence between citizens and the judiciary. When it comes to reparations, CPNR advices urgent actions to be taken for the victims whose situation of vulnerability is documented and requires medical and psychological care and as far as long term reparations, it advises on a program that will take into account individual, collective, material and symbolic reparations.

Other recommendations include instituting September 28 of each year as a Day of Remembrance and Forgiveness, the search for missing persons and bodies of those killed, the identification of mass graves, an official public apology from the State including recognition of the facts and acceptance of its responsibility, judicial reforms, restoration of victims in their rights, and a guaranty of non-repetition.

The President’s Speech

While I agree with many journalists and commentators who commented about the fact that the President missed the opportunity to show a strong symbolic act of reconciliation when he left the room without shaking the hand of his opponent and main challenger during the last two presidential elections, I think that the President was by and large conciliatory.

In his speech during the ceremony, the President highlighted some issues in his view that would make the process run on a steep slope. Those following news from Guinea, know how much the president’s opinion counts on the life of the country in general and his support and buy-in for any program is crucial for it to succeed. Therefore, brainstorming on ways to address his worries could only contribute to advance the pace of the process.

For instance, the president said that reconciliation is difficult because “many of the victims are also perpetrators”. Though I agree with him on the face of his statement, this element should not however be used as an excuse for inaction. It happened that during the regime of Sekou Touré (1958 – 1984) public figures who were seen as executioners at the sinister Camp Boiro ended up themselves in the same concentration camp.

Cote d’Ivoire: Taking Shea From Cottage Industry to Big Business

Khorhogo — From cosmetics to cooking, shea butter is popular around the world. It is made from the nut of the shea tree, known as “women’s gold” in Africa for it provides income to millions of women across the Sahel. In northern Ivory Coast, women are trying to transform shea butter from a cottage industry into big business.

It’s harvest season for karité, or shea, in northern Ivory Coast, and just like every year, Alice Koné picks up the fallen fruit. She processes the kernels in the traditional way her grandmother taught her.

It will take her hours of hard work to make the shea butter that will then be sold at the local market.

“Sometimes, shea butter pays well and we don’t need anything else. But when the harvest isn’t good, we have to get by with other products,” said Koné.

Like Koné, most women in the shea industry in Ivory Coast work independently and sell locally.

But shea butter is in high demand internationally for use in cosmetics or as a substitute for cocoa butter in chocolate.

Neighboring Burkina Faso and Ghana are among the world’s leading exporters. Burkina Faso earns an estimated $33 million annually exporting shea.

Ivory Coast is trying to catch up.

In one village, women have teamed up in a shea co-op.

“When you work in group, there are a lot of ideas, and also financial backers can come help us. We have received some assistance, a funding capital, they built us a warehouse. If you work alone, people can’t help you. They can’t build a warehouse for every woman,” said Ahoua Coulibaly, a shea butter producer.

In some fields in the area a new kind of shea tree is also being planted.  This kind is more productive than the traditional wild type. And the country now has two mechanical processing units. Two years ago, the government began working to structure the shea sector, an effort spearheaded by Ali Keita.

“As soon as we have a strong cooperative structure, we will have clients in China, Europe and the United States. If we manage to create an inter-professional organization, it will allow the country to export shea butter internationally,” said Keita.

Keita is also pushing for more regional cooperation among shea butter-producing countries.

Gambia: Govt, FAO Ink U.S.$ 3.1 Million Community-Based Forestry Management Project

The Ministry of Environment and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) on Thursday signed a US$3.1 million community-based sustainable dry land forestry management project.

The project will be implemented in 82 communities in the North Bank, Central River, Upper River and Lower River regions. It is aimed at addressing the underlying needs of degradation of dry land forest such as unsustainable and uncontrolled resource extraction, forest fire, increased population pressure and lack of adequate socioeconomic/livelihood opportunities.

The five-year project, 2016-2021, is mainly funded by the Global Environment Facility and co-financed by the FAO, The Gambia Government, the Agency for the Development of Women & Children (ADWAC), and the Department of Forestry.

Speaking at the event, FAO Country Representative Dr. Perpetua Katepa-Kalala, said the specific objective of the project is to reduce forest degradation in The Gambia. “The project will work towards strengthening policy and institutional capacity for sustainable dry land forest management, community based sustainable dry land forest management and rehabilitation and project monitoring and evaluation and information dissemination,” she said, noting that desertification and land degradation are major environmental issues faced by The Gambia.

She acknowledged that at the beginning of the twentieth century, most of the Gambian territory was still covered by dense forest. “By 2010, the forest cover was about 44% of the total land area of which 1.1% was closed forest and nearly 70% degraded.” She stated that this is a major threat to poverty reduction, eradication of hunger and continued development of affected communities, especially in the northern part of the country.

The Minister of Environment, Hon. Pa Ousman Jarju, said government is doing all efforts in the fight against climate change. He said the overall objective is to halt environmental degradation and the growing threat of desertification in The Gambia as a result of continued deforestation, through empowering communities with the legal security, skills and the knowledge necessary to sustainably manage their natural resources and conserve the remaining biodiversity.

Eritrea Festival 2016 in Progress

President Isaias officially opens the Festival

President Isaias Afwerki officially opened the Eritrean National Festival 2016 last Saturday at the Expo Grounds here in the capital.

The annual event is being conducted under the theme “Festival: The Foundation of Unity and Diversity”.

Present at the opening ceremony were Government and PFDJ officials, heads of National Unions and members of the Diplomatic Corp. The President observed the different sections of the Festival during which he received briefings.

In the course of the Festival that will continue until the 14th of August, a number of displays highlighting the nation’s natural and cultural resources, pavilions that reflect our cultural diversity, artistic performances, creative works and innovations as well as exhibitions of different products would be featured.

In connection with the launching of the Festival, cultural performances including music and dramas were staged at Cinema Roma on August 5.

A number of participants of the Festival from inside the country and abroad indicated that it creates a platform for appreciating Eritrea’s cultural diversity and history and

thus transfer Eritrean values to future generations.

Also in related news, the mining companies operating in Eritrea are displaying their activities at Eritrea Festival 2016.

The Head of Zara Mining Company, Mr. Yosief Taddese stated that before beginning production, the company has been engaged for 14 years in exploration activities and for 2 years putting in place the necessary infrastructure.

He further indicated that the company equipped with international standard equipment has begun production as of February 2015.

Meanwhile, visitors to the Festival said that the different artistic exhibitions depict the identity and culture of the Eritrean people which has added color to the national gathering.

In another report, women nationals who are displaying products of artifacts organized by the National Union of Eritrean Youth and Students (NUEYS) branch in the Central region said that the materials for their products are all obtained form inside the country.

Egypt Plays Pivotal Role in the Region – Yemeni PM

Cairo — Yemen Prime Minister Ahmed Obaid Bin Dagher underlined Egypt’s pivotal role and status in the region during his visit to Cairo on Sunday.

The Yemeni prime minister arrived in Cairo for bilateral talks with his Egyptian counterpart Sherif Ismail.

According to a statement by Egypt’s cabinet, a meeting is scheduled to take place, where the two prime ministers will discuss means for boosting bilateral ties between the two Arab countries.

Bin Dagher said the visit holds great importance due to the development of events in his country as well as the whole region, according to state-run MENA news agency.

He added that he’ll inform Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi about the latest developments regarding the crisis in Yemen and will deliver him a message from Yemen President Abd-Rabbo Mansour Hadi.

“We are keen to discuss ways of activating relations with the Egyptian government through holding talks with Prime Minister Sherif Ismail and working on developing joint cooperation in all fields to serve the strategic interests of both countries,” Bin Dagher added.

Egypt is a member of the Saudi-led military coalition that intervened in Yemen in 2015 in support of the country’s government against a Houthi rebel group.

Africa’s Data Future – Telecoms Regulators Need to Innovate to Get Lower Internet Access Costs

London — Africa’s data and Internet communications infrastructure has improved so much in the last decade that it’s easy to become complacent. The dual challenges of price and quality of service have not been overcome.

African regulators have never been good at imagining the future and with all the improvements they seem to have taken their eye off the ball. Russell Southwood looks at why things are stuck and what might get them moving again.

Africa’s transition to data is crucial for the next round of investment in the continent. The existence of relatively cheap Internet access and the services and content it brings with it are needed to power a second wave of economic growth.

The challenge of all challenges is that the operators in Africa’s Internet market need to be able to deliver cheaper data access than elsewhere because most Africans do not earn US or European salaries. Getting Internet access prices to US or European levels is not enough, they have to go lower.

Sub-Saharan Africa has countries that are amongst the most expensive places to operate in. So whoever Africa’s operators are or will be, they have to become pioneers in lowering the costs of both building and operating data infrastructure. Government and regulators need to understand the scale of this challenge and help operators become cost-cutting pioneers.

African regulators are not currently in a good place to make this happen. In the main, mobile operators have taken over as the market incumbents and are no longer forcing the pace of change but largely simply reacting to what’s happening elsewhere. The need for an effective, large capacity data network seems to have caught many of them off-balance.

African regulators who have pursued the opening of African telecoms markets have been slow to react to changed market circumstances. In many cases, even what were once quite competitive markets are now stuck. A brief summary of some of the difficulties may be helpful:

* Dominant Players:

A number of Africa’s telecoms markets are now dominated by a single player. Sometimes efforts have been made to declare them dominant players in regulatory terms but these have largely been ineffective. These dominant players have operated skillfully as price progressives (lowering tariffs) and in so doing have cemented their market position.

In Kenya, Safaricom has such an unassailable and central position that whatever anybody does, it usually ends up benefitting. If you need a telecoms or network partner, why bother with those who have less than 30% of the market? The recent Kenya Power partnership deal on Fibre-To-The-Home will reinforce its position in yet another market niche.

In Senegal, Sonatel is testing Free-Wi in Rufisque. Free Wi-Fi is undoubtedly a good thing but who’s paying? And this in a country where there are no independent Internet service providers, no alternative fibre providers and its two mobile competitors struggle to make it anything like a fair, competitive fight.

And then there’s MTN in Nigeria who for all their recent troubles, occupy the commanding heights of the country’s telecoms and data markets… ..Others could be added to list.

* Old school stuck:

Some of Africa’s regulators have simply not got off the blocks in terms of creating a competitive market. In these countries the dominant player is usually a decaying state-owned telco with about as much appetite for innovation as a sleeping dog. The Governments in these countries have chosen to foster an inefficient job creation scheme over being able to offer cheaper Internet and a more efficient economy.

The country that heads this category must surely be Ethiopia where the absence of any competition means that the market is probably about a third smaller than it might otherwise be. The State lacks the capital to make these financially leaky dinosaurs effective. But in this long list of countries, we must include places like Djibouti, Togo and Cameroon.

Take Cameroon where the Government has ensured that it has ownership of all the landing stations and its telco Camtel has a de facto monopoly over wholesale bandwidth. And all of these dilapidated incumbents who are without strategy, innovation or ideas want to be mobile operators.

* Last man standing “consolidation”:

More conventional industry analysts are keen on seeing “consolidation” as one answer to current problems. To be fair to their argument, Africa has more operators than many other places globally.

But what does consolidation mean? There will be less operators (two per country?) and their market power will be even greater. The last man standing theory is that if you are one of the lucky surviving operators you will then be able to hike your prices back to the level they were when the markets first opened.

With Airtel selling off some of its smaller opcos to Orange, the full scale of this is not immediately apparent. But what if this was really just the start of Bharti Airtel’s long goodbye to Africa? Consolidation will inevitably happen but then how do regulators ensure that markets maintain a competitive dynamic?

* No technical or business model innovation:

Many African regulators were admirably quick to allow TV White Spaces Pilots. All of these worked at a technical level and offered independent operators wanting to deliver Internet more widely distinct advantages. But with one exception, not a single African regulator has licensed an operator to use TV White Spaces.

So whilst Africa has a massively improved network infrastructure many of same market blockages remain. What follows is a list of things that might be done by African regulators to achieve two things: firstly, to help existing operators improve their cost base; and secondly, to encourage new market players to invest in business models that will offer cheaper operating costs:

– Open up competition in the wholesale space by licensing alternative fibre providers

There are still African countries where there are public utilities (railways, water, oil and electricity companies). Competition and price levels in the wholesale market for those countries that have state incumbents will be greatly improved by these entities offering their surplus fibre capacity.

In addition, there are independent wholesale fibre providers (Liquid Telecom, Phase3, FibreCo) who are operating fibre networks that provide competition to existing providers. These kinds of third party fibre providers can be encouraged by offering licences for them to invest.

– Take a leaf out of the Project Link book and open up licences for metronet providers

Google’s Project Link has demonstrated that it’s possible to create a metronet fibre provider that can both offer better prices and invest in metronet fibre that is more open access. Regulators need to learn lessons from its experiences in Uganda and Ghana and look out how they might encourage this kind of entity in their own country.

– Encourage the sale of dark fibre by all market players to make maximum use of fibre assets available

In many countries, there is no shortage of fibre but prices remain unrealistically high. Regulators need to insist that all operators with wholesale fibre make a dark fibre offer. Where there is only one operator, prices will need to be controlled by the regulator. These dark fibre prices can be benchmarked against the more competitive markets across the continent.

– Making it easier and quicker to build fibre infrastructure

African regulators and Governments need to ensure that the sale and administration of rights of way are dealt with by a single agency and that local administrations understand that getting fibre networks built is of national strategic importance, not another source of tax income.

Existing and planned ducts should all be available on a shared basis so that several operators can make use of a single physical infrastructure element. Building fibre ducts should be a mandated part of all major road or rail projects.

– Taxes – Stop taxing Internet access devices (smartphones, tablets and laptops)

On the tax front, some African countries have removed import taxes from handsets. All countries should do this and include tablets and laptops in the same exemption. As the cheaper smartphones now in the market have shown, getting the cost of devices down does increase number of devices sold.

– Licence power distributors who will supply power to any base station operator to lower operating costs

Companies should be licensed to distribute electricity to anyone operating a base station or tower. Facilitating reliable electrical power to base stations will improve quality of service levels and lower energy costs for operators.

– Encourage innovation in both technologies and business models

Regulators and governments need to actively encourage innovation that will lower operating costs and in so doing lower the final price of Internet access to users. This encouragement needs to focus on two areas: firstly, they need to encourage the roll-out of innovative technologies that will help change capital and operating costs. Secondly, they need to license companies or organizations offering new business models that will do the same.

In technology terms, there is everything from near technologies (already operating) like TV White Spaces and Millimetre Band to future technologies like lasers and drones. A few weeks ago Facebook announced its OpenCellular project, the equivalent of a network in a box. African regulators should be running pilots of technologies like this with the clearly announced intention of licensing operators to use it at the end of a pilot period.

In terms of new business models, regulators should be encouraging any one of a growing list of companies (including Argon, Mawingu, Vanu and Virural) to start rolling out to uncovered rural areas. Some of these new licensees could work directly with mobile operators whereas others could work independently. But each of these categories of licensees would provide coverage (voice and data) for those areas currently uncovered. Closer to the core, regulators need to find operators who will provide investment in the latest VoLTE technology or any other IP-based voice technology.

African regulators and Government need to start searching out those who can deliver innovations of these kinds and put out the welcome mat for them. If they do so, Africa may yet become a pioneering continent in terms of cheaper Internet access.

Africa: Kagame Attends Swearing in Ceremony for Chadian President

President Paul Kagame, yesterday, attended the swearing in ceremony of his Chadian counterpart Idriss Deby Itno.

In the capital N’Djamena, President Kagame was received by the Chadian Prime Minister, Albert Pahimi Padacké, according to a statement from presidency.

Taking place at the Grand Hotel N’Djamena, the ceremony was attended by over 15 Heads of State and Government from, among othrs, Uganda, Mali, Mauritania, Central African Republic, DR Congo, Sudan, Burkina Faso, Benin, Niger, Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea.

The swearing in ceremony consisted of a 21 gun salute, after which President Idriss Deby Itno took oath of office and was awarded the National Order of merit.

President Deby won the April elections with 62 per cent of the vote.

In his speech, President Deby vowed to use his term in office to ensure the prosperity of Chad and urged Africans to unite and work together to ensure the development of the continent.

On his first visit to Chad, President Kagame used the African Passport launched at the African Union Summit in July in Kigali.

East Africa: We Will Trade With Other EAC Countries If Burundi Ignores Us – Kanimba

Following the recent decision made by Burundi to sever trade ties with Rwanda, Rwanda will trade with other regional countries. The remarks have been made by trade minister, Francois Kanimba.

“The Burundian government decided to ban exports to our country but this has little impact on our economy; the products that have been imported from there can be got from Uganda and Tanzania,” Kanimba said.

Kanimba affirmed that Burundi’s decision is a violation of the EAC treaty on common market protocol among member states.

The EAC Common Market protocol was effected on July 1, 2010 following ratification by all the six partner countries.

Rwanda has been exporting manufactured products, maize, cassava flour, milk, potatoes, unprocessed maize flour and wheat flour to Burundi. In turn, it was mainly importing fruits from Burundi such as mangoes and oranges, dried silver fish and palm oil.

Daniel Fred Kidega, the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) Speaker, said the Communications Trade and Investment Committee shall ascertain facts of Burundi’s decision.

“It is important to add that the region is implementing the customs union and the common market. It would be counterproductive for partner states to deprive citizens of the associated benefits,” Kidega said.

Burundi’s economy

Burundi is one of the poorest, smallest, and most densely populated nations in Africa. Its poor transportation system and its distance from the sea have tended to limit its economic growth.

The economy is almost entirely agricultural, especially subsistence farming. Major crops include corn, sorghum, sweet potatoes, bananas and manioc.

Coffee, the country’s chief export, accounts for 80% of its foreign exchange income. Cotton, tea, sugar, and hides are also exported. Cattle, goats, and sheep are raised.

The country’s industries include food processing, manufacturing of basic consumer goods such as blankets and footwear, assembly of imported components and public works construction. Bigger industries are government-owned.

Burundi relies on international aid for economic development and has incurred a large foreign debt. Nickel, uranium, and other minerals are mined in small quantities; platinum reserves have yet to be exploited.

Burundi’s imports (capital goods, petroleum products, and foodstuffs) considerably exceed the value of its exports.

Germany, Belgium, Kenya, and Tanzania make up its chief trading partners. Most exports are sent by ship to Kigoma in Tanzania and then by rail to Dar-es-Salaam on the Indian Ocean.

Congo-Kinshasa: Kodjo in the DRC – Time to Go?

ANALYSIS

What is evolving in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is not much different from events in neighbouring Burundi. Both presidents are reluctant to respect their constitutional term mandates. While in Burundi the situation has evolved into a full-on crisis, in the DRC it is just starting to escalate.

This week the Burundian government rejected the deployment of a 228-strong UN police force to the country – a compromise solution that took the UN Security Council many months to forge and that most Burundi-watchers agreed was a mere drop in the bucket compared to what is really needed. But the government was not willing to allow a small number of outsiders access to the country, even though this force could have helped end killings on both sides of the political divide.

The time to deal with Burundi was early 2015 – and many would say even earlier. There are now very few options left to persuade Burundi’s President Pierre Nkurunziza to make concessions and return the country to a path of stability and long-term peace.

The impasse in Burundi is proof that when a head of state wants to cling to power, he can, and there is very little the international community can do about it.

Of course there are sanctions, and some countries have already imposed them on Burundi, but these are slow to have an impact, and depending on their nature, often hurt the poor first.

This is a lesson that is growing more acute by the day for those hoping to prevent neighbouring DRC, where presidential elections have been delayed indefinitely, from descending into large-scale violence.

Time to act is quickly running out. The African Union (AU) appointed facilitator, former Togolese prime minister Edem Kodjo, announced his intention to launch preparatory talks on the National Dialogue in late June, but has had to indefinitely postpone them as the largest opposition grouping – the Rassemblement de l’opposition – led by Etienne Tshisekedi, has refused to attend.

The Rassemblement argues that Kodjo determined the date and format of the meeting unilaterally and so violated an understanding he had forged with the opposition in June. Since the Congolese government first mooted the National Dialogue in 2015, the opposition has rejected it as a process whose sole purpose was to rubberstamp the government’s orchestrated election delays.

Presidential elections were due to be held in November this year and President Joseph Kabila’s second and last presidential mandate expires on 19 December. Kodjo, who was appointed by the AU in January upon the Kabila government’s request, has failed to shake off the impression that he is there to do the government’s bidding.

And while the Rassemblement and other opposition groupings have agreed that some sort of dialogue is necessary, they insist they will not participate in a National Dialogue that has been ‘designed’ by Kabila, and in which he may himself participate.

In response to the opposition’s demands that Kodjo accept independent co-facilitators from the UN and the US, and also to speed up the stalled process, the frustrated international community hammered out a new arrangement, announcing in June the formation of a support committee for Kodjo consisting of the UN, the Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie, and the European Union (EU). These organisations are joined by the Southern African Development Community and the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR), of which DRC is a member.

In July the UN Special Envoy to the Great Lakes, Said Djinnit, and the EU Special Envoy to the Great Lakes, Koen Verwaake, accompanied by AU Peace and Security Council Chairperson Smaïl Chergui, travelled to meet representatives of the Rassemblement in Brussels.

Although the constitution of the support committee was a big step forward, and a clear victory for the opposition, the opposition maintains that Kodjo is biased in favour of Kabila and that it will not engage in a dialogue stage-managed by the Congolese government.

The Congolese government is not helping matters. On the one hand it calls the opposition to negotiations, and on the other it cracks down on freedom of expression, responds violently to protests and continues to harass its political opponents.

Last week a judge in the recent criminal case against Moise Katumbi, the former Katanga governor turned opposition figure, who is now outside the country, revealed that several senior government officials pressured her into finding Katumbi guilty. The indictment means Katumbi would be arrested upon his return to the country, and it also makes him ineligible to stand for the presidency.

But the Rassemblement and other opposition parties that refuse to engage with the dialogue also need a reality check. Less than five months before the end of Kabila’s mandate, some sort of political dialogue to chart the way forward has become inevitable. The government has made minor concessions, notably on the support committee to Kodjo and, although largely a token move, it released some political prisoners last week.

However, compromise from the opposition camp also seems unlikely in the near future. After two years in exile, Tshisekedi returned to Kinshasa to a triumphant welcome last week and then summoned tens of thousands of people to a political meeting on 31 July. Bolstered by this show of force, the Rassemblement’s position is unlikely to budge anytime soon. The opposition’s gamble is that it can scare Kabila out of power by demonstrating that the street is behind it.

Both sides are now locked into their positions. In such a context, it is almost impossible to establish the trust and confidence necessary to foster an open and productive political dialogue.

The creation of the support group for Kodjo also seems to have failed to make significant progress. The ICGLR’s recent decision to send Denis Sassou Nguesso, the President of the Republic of the Congo, to help with the talks is also questionable. Sassou recently stage-managed his own domestic political dialogue in order to push through a new constitution that allowed him to stand for another term. He has also mediated in DRC before – in 2014 in another national dialogue that the opposition boycotted because it was dominated by the Kabila government.

Chergui recently said it is not about the facilitator, but in the end, replacing Kodjo is likely to be the only way to restart the process and have an open political dialogue that charts a credible way forward. That is, provided both sides actually want a peaceful resolution.

Stephanie Wolters, Head, Peace and Security Research Programme, ISS Pretoria