Readers of a prestigious American business publication have been told that now is the time to re-engage with Zimbabwe if investors want to get in on the ground floor ahead of a resurge in the economy.

“For companies willing to take on some risks, now is the time to buy local assets, which, though priced in U.S. dollars, are still fairly cheap because of the associated risk,” write analysts Anna Rosenberg and William Attwell in the Harvard Business Review.

They add: “This is also a good time to look for the best possible potential business partners – they are eager for investment but may not be available for long if interest in the market picks up. However, companies should stay clear of sectors with high levels of political interference, such as mining.”

Rosenberg is director and Attwell senior analyst for Sub-Saharan Africa Research at the Frontier Strategy Group, a firm which gives advice and intelligence to businesses operating in emerging markets.

“On a recent research trip to Harare,” they write, “we were struck by the business opportunities that still exist in the economy despite the difficulties the country faced in the past several years.”

President Emmerson Mnangagwa “knows he will need to meaningfully improve the business environment and living standards to secure his legitimacy,” they add. The country is at a crossroads and if Mnangagwa follows through with economic reforms, “multinationals that are willing to accept some risk and invest in the country could benefit from first-mover advantages…”

The analysts identify the lack of cash as the main challenge facing the economy and say progress in addressing this will be “slow and incremental”.

Mnangagwa has successfully negotiated support from the African Export and Import Bank for importers, as well as guarantees to allow the central bank to increase the printing of the country’s “bond notes”. But Zimbabwe will be able to access the credit it needs only once he convinces bodies such as the African Development Bank and the World Bank that the government is a reliable borrower.

“As Mnangagwa’s reforms begin to gradually stabilize the economy, significant opportunities will emerge across an array of sectors and segments – both formal and informal – for companies hoping to expand in this relatively under-served, but high-potential market,” Rosenberg and Attwell write.

They identify four “plus” factors for those wanting to do business in Zimbabwe. Verbatim excerpts from their report:

source: allafrica

Rome — After René Castro-Salazar attended the first U.N.-led climate talks in Berlin in 1985 as Costa Rica’s environment and energy minister, he tried to talk about agriculture and climate change – but few wanted to join the conversation.

“There was always opposition – and we couldn’t understand why,” said Castro, now assistant director-general at the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

To him, the need to tackle the topic was clear.

Agriculture, forestry and other land uses together account for nearly a quarter of the greenhouse gas emissions heating up the planet, according to the FAO.

Cutting these is essential if the world is to keep global temperature rise to a manageable level, said Castro.

Farms and forests can also store large amounts of carbon, and simple actions by all countries could result in immediate environmental benefits, he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

In the early years, the climate negotiations focused on reducing emissions from the energy sector – the largest emitter – while the relationship between agriculture and climate change was not fully understood.

Later on, poor states feared discussing the linkage would result in obligations for them to curb emissions from farming. Rich nations worried they would have to pay for poor farmers to adapt to a changing climate.

The Israeli government has issued a notice for thousands of African migrants to leave the country or face imprisonment.

The migrants will be given up to $3,500 (£2,600) for leaving within the next 90 days.

They will be given the option of going to their home country or third countries.

If they do not leave, the Israeli authorities have threatened that they will start jailing them from April.

The UN refugee agency said the controversial plan violated international and Israeli laws.

• Israel’s unwanted African migrants

The Israeli government says their return will be humane and “voluntary”.

The order exempts children, elderly people, and victims of slavery and human trafficking.

A spokesperson for Israel’s Population and Immigration Authority told the BBC there were currently 38,000 “infiltrators” in Israel, of whom just 1,420 were being held in detention facilities.

Israel uses the term “infiltrators” to describe people who did not enter the country through an official border crossing.

Many of the migrants – who are mostly from Eritrea and Sudan – say they came to Israel to seek asylum after fleeing persecution and conflict, but the authorities regard them as economic migrants.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed that an unchecked influx of African migrants could threaten Israel’s Jewish character.

Source: BBC Africa

Tanzanian authorities have threatened to shut down churches which mix religion and politics after a cleric criticised President John Magufuli.

The cleric, Zachary Kakobe, used a Christmas sermon to say the country was “turning into a one party state”.

Days later, the Home Affairs Ministry warned religious organisations which dabbled in political issues would have their licence revoked.

Critics complain of growing intolerance towards dissent in Tanzania.

Some critics accuse President Magufuli, nicknamed “the Bulldozer”, of becoming increasingly authoritarian – a charge he strongly denies.

Several newspapers have been shut down and individuals have been prosecuted for allegedly insulting the president on social media, while last year Tanzanian police indefinitely suspended political protests and rallies, only permitting political campaigning during elections.

• Who is Tanzania’s ‘Bulldozer’ president?
• President sacks officials after TV row
• What has Tanzania’s Magufuli done during his year in office?

The constitution of Tanzania protects freedom of worship – although religious organisations must register for a licence with the country’s Home Affairs Ministry to operate legally.

But Mr Kabobe, who leads a Pentecostal church in the commercial capital Dar es Salaam, used his Christmas sermon to tell congregants Tanzania was “quietly turning into a one-state rule by systematically banning political activity”.

On Thursday, Projest Rwegasira, the permanent secretary in the Ministry of Home Affairs, warned religious leaders talking about political issues “could lead to cancellation of the registration of the concerned religious society”, news agency Reuters reports.

He said religious leaders “using their sermons to analyse political issues is contrary to the law”.

Source: BBC.com

South Africa’s top court has found that parliament failed to comply with its duties in holding President Jacob Zuma accountable over a public funding case.

The ruling said parliament must now set out rules for impeachment proceedings, but it remains unclear whether this will lead to any impeachment.

The court was hearing a case brought by opposition groups who wanted parliament to be compelled to begin impeachment.

It relates to Mr Zuma’s use of state funds to upgrade his private home.

• Will Zuma be ousted as president?
• The trials of Jacob Zuma
• The Gupta scandal explained

Handing down the Constitutional Court ruling, Judge Chris Jafta said: “We conclude that the assembly did not hold the president to account.

“The assembly must put in place a mechanism that could be used for the removal of the president from office.”

But the court said it could not intervene on how parliament determined the mechanism and that it had no power to order an impeachment

The court awarded costs against Mr Zuma and parliament.

The court ruling was by majority. Dissenting Chief Justice Mogoeng Mogoeng said the ruling was a clear case of “judicial overreach”.

Some $15m (£11.1m) in state money was spent upgrading Mr Zuma’s home.

In March 2016, the court ruled he had ignored a watchdog’s findings and said he must pay some of the money back. The president has reimbursed $631,000, deemed by the Treasury to be “reasonable”.

Parliament then debated the matter and he survived a no-confidence vote, but Friday’s court ruling said that the procedures it followed were insufficient.

Mr Zuma has been weakened by a number of corruption allegations and by his recent replacement by Cyril Ramaphosa as head of the ruling ANC.

Mr Zuma, 75, is scheduled to remain president until general elections in 2019.

He has faced a number of corruption allegations, all of which he denies.

source: BBC.COM

Abuja — The relief felt in Lagos is yet to extend to Abuja as shortage of fuel persisted in the nation’s federal capital territory wednesday.

Long queues remained the main feature of most part of the capital motorists spent hours waiting to be served the now essential commodity.

In the meantime, the blame game on the cause of the acute shortage of the commodity continued yesterday with the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) describing as ‘very unfortunate’ claims by the Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association (DAPPMA) that it (NNPC) was largely responsible for the scarcity of petrol in the country.

This occurs just as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) demanded that the federal government should speak out on reports of alleged fraud in the oil regime whereupon 18 unregistered companies were said to have been used to lift and divert $1.1 trillion worth of crude oil in the last one year.

In a statement by its Group General Manager, Public Affairs, Mr. Ndu Ughamadu, in Abuja, the NNPC exonerated itself from DAPPMA’s accusations that it had not supplied its members petrol, and that its Direct Sale Direct Purchase (DSDP) products supply scheme had broken down, hence, the supply glitches that led to the scarcity.

source:  Chineme Okafor and Onyebuchi Ezigbo/ allafrica.com

Checkered shirts for American chain Gap. Slate leggings for Swedish store H&M. Twill shorts for Germany’s Tchibo. They are among a growing list of clothes being stitched together for big brands in Ethiopia.

As labor, raw material and tax costs rise in China – the world’s dominant textiles producer – the Horn of Africa country is scrambling to offer a cheaper alternative, and go up against established low-cost garment makers like Bangladesh and Vietnam.

It is still early days, and most of the clothing companies to source production in Ethiopia are testing the waters with small volumes. But the government is working hard to attract their business with tax breaks, subsidies and cheap loans. Ethiopia, which is a landlocked country, is also about to open the final stretch of a 700 km (450-mile) electric railway to Djibouti’s coast.

This is part of a drive to turn Ethiopia into a manufacturing hub in Africa.

There has been some progress; foreign investment in the textile industry has risen from 4.5 billion birr ($166.5 million) in 2013/14 to 36.8 billion in 2016/17, the Ethiopian Investment Commission, a government agency, told Reuters.

“This is a huge success,” Arkebe Oqubay, a prime ministerial adviser directing the industrialization drive, said during the inauguration of an industry park in the northern Ethiopian town of Kombolcha this summer. “The challenge now is to bring the world’s biggest companies into the country.”

Some have already arrived, most of them sourcing some production locally, like Gap and H&M, but a few building factories themselves.

Those to set up factories this year include U.S. fashion giant PVH, whose brands include Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger; Dubai-based Velocity Apparelz Companies, which supplies Levi’s, Zara and Under Armour; and China’s Jiangsu Sunshine Group, whose customers include Giorgio Armani and Hugo Boss.

French retailer Decathlon and over 150 companies from China and India will begin sourcing production from Ethiopia soon, said the investment commission.

However, while Ethiopia is moving faster than its continental rivals, there is a long road ahead.

Route to Red Sea

Officials say the $4 billion electric railway between Addis Ababa and the Red Sea, to be inaugurated in the coming weeks, will reduce the transit time to the Port of Djibouti from 2-3 days to eight hours.

Bill McRaith, PVH’s chief supply chain officer based in New York, told Reuters his company saw sub-Saharan African countries as a promising new manufacturing frontier at a time of rising costs and labor shortages in other regions.

PVH arrived in Ethiopia this summer and is building a factory in Hawassa, south of Addis Ababa – an investment which McRaith said was based on a long-term expectation that Ethiopia would become one of the most competitive locations in the world to make apparel.

Source: africanbusinesscentral.com

A number of countries in Africa have seen rapid technological development in recent years, as exemplified by mobile internet deployment across Uganda and Tanzania.

This is largely due to a lack of existing infrastructure and regulation allowing for new technologies to leapfrog traditional solutions and for policy frameworks to be implemented in conjunction with new products. This results in stable macroeconomic environments which now sees countries, such as Kenya, as a favourable market for tech investors.

Blockchain and other decentralised systems are likely to be the next technology to capitalise on this ‘test and learn’ approach as they are well suited to manage data, financial assets and B2B transactions without the need for intermediaries. As a core principle, Blockchain improves the quality, reliability and accessibility of data and for this reason, they have the potential to alleviate various issues which can arise when conducting business.

Whilst recognising that there will be regional and national level nuances to Blockchain’s implementation, this report highlights how the technology is expected to affect business across the continent. By no means exhaustive, the examples below represent areas in which Blockchain is likely to have a significant impact in the short to medium term.

Currency

Due to their reliance on international commodity markets, African currencies can lack stability. The result is that the US Dollar is often used as an informal currency, particularly by businesses. This presents its own issues as foreign currency reserves are often limited – as an example Zimbabwean banks cap daily cash withdrawals at USD $20.

By using cryptocurrencies, businesses can benefit from a stable store of value and hedge against inflation whilst avoiding reserve issues. Furthermore, cryptocurrencies aren’t geographically restricted which has the potential to facilitate cross-border trade.

BitPesa is currently pioneering this process by hosting B2B payments and offering a real-time settlement at wholesale FX rates to frontier and emerging markets through mobile money networks.

Land

At present, land tenure in many jurisdictions lacks clarity and security – this leads to the issue of ‘dead capital’ as lenders are typically unwilling to securitise land. This prevents effective utilisation of one of Africa’s most significant assets and hinders entrepreneurs who are otherwise unable to raise capital.

Unclear land rights also pose difficulties to international investors (particularly in the projects sector) as the security of tenure is critical to ensuring a project’s success. Many countries have taken steps to alleviate this issue; however, most records still remain paper-based.

Blockchain has the potential to resolve this issue and is currently being trialled in Ghana where the government is working in collaboration with Bitland; a startup which allows land to be surveyed and title deeds to be recorded on the Bitland Blockchain – creating a permanent and auditable land record.

Commerce management

Effective supply chains are critical to development and are of particular importance to many of the continents land-locked states such as Uganda which relies on imports by road from the Kenyan port of Mombasa. Although in operation, many supply chains perform suboptimally which increases the cost and decreases the efficiency of conducting business.

Blockchain can assist with alleviating this issue through a number of mechanisms such as resource management and performance-based incentivisation. Currently, commerce management operates in a siloed fashion with limited information sharing, leaving resources unused or underutilised.

As Blockchain is implemented and full supply chain data becomes available, it will be possible to assess a supply chain’s capacity in real time and automatically allocate items to available space in containers, warehouses and vehicles. This has the potential to substantially reduce bottle-necking that occurs at many terminals.

Furthermore, as individual products will have an increased data history, it will be possible to analyse the efficiency of their transit. Local supply chain partners can then be remunerated on this basis, encouraging distribution efficiency.

The legitimacy of this approach can be seen with Walmart’s Blockchain trials in association with IBM where various smart contracts have been implemented to provide an overview of a product’s supply chain.

Trust Mechanism/ Bureaucracy

Due to their codified nature and automatic execution, Blockchain contracts have the potential to provide greater transparency over contractual compliance – thereby acting as a trust mechanism for contractual relationships and alleviating a significant business risk.

In addition, the distributed nature of the data across multiple nodes ensures that information cannot be held by single organisations/ institutions; nor can data be altered or its accuracy challenged. This will assist with the information imbalance which exists when dealing with many public bodies.

Additionally, smart contracts can have the capacity to track every dollar spent. This will be of particular benefit to lending institutions and will ultimately allow entities which are more risk averse to invest in the African market. BitFury (an American based company) is currently assisting with this process through its involvement with African Bitcoin payment providers such as BitPesa, mentioned above.

As demonstrated above, Blockchain has enormous potential to revolutionise business in Africa and its implementation is compelling. Although in its early stages, we are seeing an exponential growth in the technology’s foothold in the continent and initial trials are proving successful. Furthermore, governments appear to be actively engaging in Blockchain’s implementation which is crucial for technologies to be successfully deployed in the country.

Notwithstanding the above, we suggest that comprehensive legal advice is sought in conjunction with Blockchain deployment to ensure that companies fully reserve their legal position in this relatively untested market.

Peter Kasanda & Lee Bacon, partners at global law firm Clyde & Co

Source: African Business Magazine

It is now a year since an amendment to the Kenyan Banking Act of 2016 capping interest rates on loans at 4% above the Central Bank rate – which stands at 10% – came into force.

Twelve months later the exercise has brought home sobering lessons for the Kenyan economy and the banking sector as a whole. The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) is now contemplating reverting to the free-market regime that existed before capping was introduced.

The capping of interest rates was viewed as a populist move when enacted even though the proponents, had explained it as a cushion to protect consumers from high interest rates charged by banks at the time. Before the interest rate cap, Kenyan banks charged an interest rate spread of 11.4% which was 5% higher than the global average.

Even though there had been previous attempts to persuade banks to lower their interest rates, these had been unsuccessful until last year when Parliament unanimously passed the amendment.

At the time when the interest rates amendment became law, local private equity firm Cytonn Investment issued a warning that the move was bad for the Kenyan economy: “We are of the view that capping interest rates might solve the high interest rate spreads in the banking sector, but will lead to other challenges such as locking out of SMEs and other ‘high risk’ borrowers from accessing credit as banks will prefer to loan to the government, [thus] straining small banks who effectively have been shut out from the interbank market and now have to mobilise funds at rates higher than what they are getting and can only lend out within the stipulated margins.”

The statement concluded: “We believe the amendment will do more harm to the economy than good.” In mid-September this year CBK Governor Patrick Njoroge admitted that the government was contemplating reversing the move to allow for free market policies to reign again.

“It is in our interest as a country and as CBK, to work to reverse these measures and go back to a regime with freely determined interest rates but in a disciplined environment,” he said.

This was not entirely unexpected as during the interest rate capping debate in 2016, Njoroge had opposed the move noting that it went against the principles on which the Kenyan economy had been based since independence.

It was in early March this year that the initial signs of the impact of the interest rate capping began to be seen and felt as decreased lending became evident. All of Kenya’s top five banks – Equity, Kenya Commercial Bank, Cooperative Bank, StanChart and Barclays – reported a drop in their earnings.

Profits squeezed

When lenders listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) released their reports for 2016, it was clear the interest caps had squeezed their profits. Barclays Bank of Kenya recorded a fall of 12% on its net profits, while Stanbic Holdings Kenya announced a 10% drop.

Banking stocks continue to fall more steeply than in previous years and this decline has been blamed on the interest rate capping and the country’s election cycle. Kenya held its Parliamentary and Presidential elections in September but the Kenya Supreme Court annulled the results of the Presidential poll following a petition by the losing candidate, Raila Odinga. As African Banker went to press it was uncertain whether the re-run scheduled for October 26 would take place.

Presaging the elections, The Financial Sector Stability report released by CBK in August stated: “Domestically, the election cycle generally impacts financial stability and growth prospects, especially if results are contested.

“This, coupled with geopolitical and macroeconomic instability in some East African countries where Kenya’s financial institutions operate and the trade links are strong, is more likely to be a source of vulnerabilities going forward… As a result the stock market is likely to record further depressed activity.”

As the interest rate cap marks a year since it came into force, an internal CBK study has already indicated tougher times for the banking sector and the multiple ripple effects on the Kenyan economy.

While the CBK admits that its study has shown that an interest rates freeze is bad for the economy, it is yet to release the full findings for public scrutiny. An increase of non-performing loans has already elicited worry from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has asked the CBK to be vigilant and requested that the Treasury remove the interest rate caps as small banks and borrowers are facing a crunch time.

Problematic issue

“I think it is clear to us that this interest cap has been problematic in many ways.” Njoroge says. “It is in our interest as a central bank to work to reverse these measures and go back to a regime where interest rates are freely determined but in a disciplined environment.”

The fact that small banks have been badly affected has prompted the New York-based credit rating agency, Fitch Ratings, to sound an alert on the Kenyan economy.

“Banks have become more selective about who they lend to and have lost the incentive to grant long-term loans and finance emerging economic sectors, as the cap means that the rate will be the same as for safer short term loans,” says the agency. “This is a threat to growth in the Kenyan economy which relies heavily on bank lending and private sector credit growth which had been flattening since 2015, has slowed since the rate cap.

“Small banks are worst affected as they are more reliant on higher risk return loans and sectors and some are finding that their niche business models are no longer viable.”

But supporters of the cap have strongly defended the measure. Kiambu Town MP Jude Njomo, who led the campaign to curb interest rates in Parliament, said: “There is a concerted effort by banks, which have formed cartels to keep off credit from the public thus blackmailing Parliament into changing a law that protects the ordinary people.”

One of the fiercest critics of the capping, the IMF, which had said that “these controls have had unintended negative consequences on the availability of financing for small and medium-sized enterprises, with the risk of reversing the remarkable increase in financial inclusion observed in recent years,” itself came under attack from some quarters.

Stephen Mutoro, the Consumers Federation of Kenya (COFEK) Secretary-General criticised the IMF for its sustained tilt against the rate cap and added that failed IMF policies were to blame for the sad state of Kenya’s banking. The Kenya Bankers Association (KBA), on the other hand, warned that banks were likely to divert more funds towards Treasury bills and “other opportunities in the forex market” rather than lending to borrowers, as government debt is considered less risky and more profitable.

There is no doubt that when the rate cap was announced one year ago, it met with a good deal of public approval as rampant interest rates before then had priced local capital out of the reach of the majority of small traders in the country.

Source: African Business Magazine